1US equities closed higher across all three major indexes on Monday. The S&P 500 rose +1.02% to 6,886.24, while the NASDAQ led gains at +1.23% to 23,183.74, recovering from year-to-date losses. A software rebound drove the broader tech complex, with Oracle surging +12.74% — its largest single-day advance since September.
2Geopolitical risk remained elevated. WTIWTI (West Texas Intermediate)The benchmark US crude oil futures contract. crude briefly breached $105, gaining +9.3% on the day. A US blockade of the Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzA narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade passes. and continued Iran sanctions have lifted crude sharply above the $70 pre-war level seen in February. Energy (XLE) led sector performance at +3.42%.
3The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.32%, and the 10Y-2Y spread widened to +51bp, officially ending the inverted yield curveInverted Yield CurveAn abnormal condition in which short-term rates exceed long-term rates. Every US recession in modern history has been preceded by a yield curve inversion. that had persisted for 27 months — the longest on record. March CPICPI (Consumer Price Index)A key inflation gauge published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and a core input into Federal Reserve policy decisions. printed a firm +0.9%, while the Fear & GreedFear & Greed IndexCNN's market sentiment gauge, measured on a 0–100 scale. index remained in "Extreme Fear" territory at 15 — underscoring a tension between optimism and caution.
Oracle +12.74% — Software Stocks Rebound from AI Skepticism as Goldman Sachs Shifts Tone
Oracle (ORCL) rose +12.74% on Monday, its largest single-day gain since September, leading a broad rebound in a software sector that has been pressured by AI-disruption concerns. At a customer summit in Texas, the company highlighted the impact of "Opower," its AI platform for utilities, which investors received favorably.
The backdrop was a research note from Goldman Sachs published on Friday. CEO David Solomon commented that "enterprise AI adoption is taking longer than initially expected," a remark that was read as an opportunity to unwind what had been seen as excessive pricing of an AI-disruption narrative. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF gained +4.9% on the day — its largest single-day advance in a year.
Peers followed: Adobe +6.54%, Salesforce +4.72%, ServiceNow +7.30%, with HubSpot and Workday both gaining roughly +7%. However, each remains down double-digits year-to-date, and whether Monday's move represents a genuine turning point or a technical rebound will depend on upcoming Q1 earnings.
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Two Crosscurrents — $100 Oil and a Software Rebound: Which Is the Real Signal?
A market balancing reinflation risk against an unwind of AI-skepticism pricing — this week's earnings will be the test
Monday's session closed higher across all three major indexes, but the composition reflected two opposing forces. On one hand, "crude +9.3% and the 10-year at 4.32%" — a classic reinflation-and-higher-rates combination that typically favors value, financials, and energy. On the other, "software +5%" — a growth rebound that would usually be expected to move inversely to rising long-end yields. This apparent contradiction reflects the short-term dominance of a narrative reset — triggered by Goldman Sachs — that prior AI-disruption concerns had been overweighted.
The key variable now is this week's earnings calendar. AI-related capex guidance from TSMC (April 16) and ASML (April 15); the US economic and financial conditions picture from JPM, Citi, BAC, and GS; and consumer-facing reads from Netflix (April 16), J&J, and UnitedHealth (April 15 onward) — these will determine the durability of the software rebound. TSMC's HBM and AI-chip production guidance is the single most important signal for whether the Oracle rally can be sustained.
Our view: The "reinflation vs. AI-skepticism" tug-of-war is likely to continue near-term. That said, the combination of a yield curveYield Curve Un-InversionThe resolution of a condition in which short-term rates exceed long-term rates. Historically, the resolution itself has often preceded recession. un-inversion, a firm CPI print, and higher oil is consistent with a building recession scenario into the second half of 2026. If this week's results confirm both "AI demand remains intact" and "inflation is transitory," the rebound can continue. If either breaks, a retest of early-April lows cannot be ruled out.
※ This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader.
On April 13, as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.32%, that inversion was officially resolved (un-inversion / disinversion). The curve has returned to its "normal" shape, with 10-year yields above 2-year yields. However, in financial history, recessions have typically arrived 6 to 18 months after an un-inversion — making resolution anything but an all-clear.